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Hello Paul, I've reviewed your presentation and have the following observations. You have used the original version of hays_01_0407 for your base data. You should be using the revised version which was updated in July 2007 with the latest IDC forecast for X.86 server shipments - this reduced annual volume growth from 10% to 6%. The amended figures are contained in the HSE tutorial presented in Nov 2007 (copy of the amended figures attached). Hays_01_0407 does not address aggregation of 10G server traffic but I'm not sure about some of your assumptions in slide 4. Hays_01_0407 was based on 100G aggregation for 40G servers - a ratio of 2.5:1. You assume 10:1. This would change the content of your slide 5. I would expect to see 40G aggregation of 10G server traffic - a ratio of 4:1 - and I expect this will use 10G LAG in the early years for economic reasons. We need to consult the server system experts on aggregation levels and model this carefully. If we assume that 40G will be used to aggregate 10G server traffic, then taking 2015 as an example: 11 million 10G servers shipped (revised forecast) would give 1,833K 40 G aggregation links using a 12:1 ratio and 2 links per server. 0.7 million 40G servers shipped (revised forecast) would give 117K 100G aggregation links using a 12:1 ratio and 2 links per server (the same figure as hays_01_0407). Taking your 11% figure for backbone links in excess of 100m (as a %age of total backbone links) we get 201K 40G links and 13K 100G links, or a total of 214 XR links. If you extend this analysis beyond 2015 you get some interesting trends. I've plotted this graphically in the attachment. Best regards, Alan
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Data Centre Link volumes over 100m.pdf
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