Re: [802SEC] Membership Roster information is complete

["Grow, Bob" <bob.grow@INTEL.COM>]

Paul:

 

As we all know, forecasting membership or attendance is little more than a SWAG.  Your attempt at correlation doesn't sync with my attendance over the last four meetings.  It is clear to me that membership is a lagging indicator if anything, and your correlation might only work in a larger group (e.g., because of the total number of projects in 802). 

 

In our case, attendance builds with new projects and Sags, and falls when technology selections are made and when projects are in sponsor ballot.  The known and long discussed asymmetry between time required to gain membership and loose it also argues that membership is a lagging indicator.  We have a core group of people that slowly changes, with member highs and lows caused by people gaining membership to select the technology, with some of this latter group leaving after technology selection, and more leaving at sponsor ballot.   A consistent flow of projects builds the number of people in the first group.

 

          Members TotAttend

Jul 2004    186      293

Mar 2004    204      266

Nov 2003    211      208

Jul 2003    207      275

 

Members is members coming into the meeting (i.e., in July we had 186 into the meeting and 182 at the end of the meeting week).  I'll bet 802.3 membership grows significantly in November.

 

--Bob Grow

 

---

From: owner-stds-802-sec@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG [mailto:owner-stds-802-sec@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG] On Behalf Of Paul Nikolich
Sent: Tuesday, August 03, 2004 10:15 AM
To: STDS-802-SEC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG
Subject: [802SEC] Membership Roster information is complete

Dear WG and TAG chairs,

 

I now have all the membership data.  The summary information is as follows:

 

Working Group	Number Voters
802.1	50
802.3	182
802.11	507
802.15	261
802.16	149
802.17	38
802.18	20
802.19	12
802.20	189
802.21	49

 

TOTAL                                               1457

 

It is interesting to note that the total membership is close to the actual number of plenary session attendees.  There is little correlation, I think, since many attendees do not ever become members, and some attendees are members of multiple groups.  Hmmm.  Maybe 'Membership" is a good long term averaging filter that is a good predictor of plenary session attendance.  I would be interested to hear your opinions.

 

Now that we have the current data, I'm curious as to what you think will happen to the number of your voters versus time.  If any of you are willing to estimate your voting membership size for each plenary through the November 2005, send it to me and I collect that information and we could use it as another estimate tool for our plenary session attendance.

 

Regards,

 

--Paul

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