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As we all know, forecasting membership or attendance is little more than a SWAG. Your attempt at correlation doesn't sync with my attendance over the last four meetings. It is clear to me that membership is a lagging indicator if anything, and your correlation might only work in a larger group (e.g., because of the total number of projects in 802).
In our case, attendance builds with new projects and Sags, and falls when technology selections are made and when projects are in sponsor ballot. The known and long discussed asymmetry between time required to gain membership and loose it also argues that membership is a lagging indicator. We have a core group of people that slowly changes, with member highs and lows caused by people gaining membership to select the technology, with some of this latter group leaving after technology selection, and more leaving at sponsor ballot. A consistent flow of projects builds the number of people in the first group.
Jul 2004 186 293
Mar 2004 204 266
Nov 2003 211 208
Jul 2003 207 275
Members is members coming into the meeting (i.e., in July we had 186 into the meeting and 182 at the end of the meeting week). I'll bet 802.3 membership grows significantly in November.
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